The current market regime is configured as NEUTRAL with a score of +4.9/18. The macro business cycle is currently defined as Early Cycle, with net liquidity showing a expanding trend over the past month.
| Asset | Price | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY S&P 500 |
$778.57 | +1.16% | +2.12% | +14.85% |
| QQQ Nasdaq 100 |
$751.27 | +0.23% | +5.20% | +22.95% |
| IWM Russell 2000 |
$278.94 | -0.92% | -3.19% | +12.88% |
| TLT Long Treasuries |
$77.98 | +0.65% | -3.19% | -7.27% |
| GLD Gold |
$384.58 | +1.17% | -3.56% | -3.44% |
| USO Oil |
$148.20 | +0.56% | -4.33% | +114.91% |
| HYG High Yield Credit |
$77.23 | +0.42% | -1.31% | +0.08% |
| TIP TIPS (Real Rates) |
$104.42 | +0.30% | -1.34% | -1.70% |
| VNQ Real Estate |
$90.65 | +1.28% | -3.55% | +5.32% |
| Sector | RS 1W | RS 1M | RS YTD | Composite |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE Energy |
+2.44% | -1.62% | +30.53% | +6.84% |
| XLK Technology |
-1.68% | +3.92% | +23.40% | +5.02% |
| XLV Healthcare |
+1.63% | +1.57% | -3.65% | +0.55% |
| XLP Consumer Staples |
+2.44% | -1.40% | -5.40% | -0.28% |
| XLB Materials |
+0.01% | -4.66% | -6.30% | -2.65% |
| XLU Utilities |
+2.81% | -3.71% | -16.95% | -3.10% |
| XLRE Real Estate |
+0.80% | -5.48% | -9.33% | -3.11% |
| XLI Industrials |
-1.57% | -3.67% | -6.87% | -3.26% |
| XLY Consumer Disc. |
+1.39% | -2.00% | -18.91% | -3.68% |
| XLF Financials |
+1.16% | -6.18% | -14.00% | -4.08% |
| XLC Communications |
-1.11% | -3.77% | -19.57% | -5.60% |
| Factor | Price | 1 Week | 1 Month | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPMO Momentum |
$151.16 | -1.35% | +2.09% | +27.07% |
| IWF Growth |
$127.91 | +0.66% | +4.71% | +8.74% |
| IWD Value |
$253.54 | +1.67% | -0.44% | +20.75% |
| QUAL Quality |
$227.12 | +1.18% | +3.36% | +14.72% |
| SPLV Low Volatility |
$72.14 | +1.76% | -2.04% | +3.02% |
| IWM Small Cap |
$278.94 | -0.92% | -3.19% | +12.88% |
| MTUM Momentum (Alt) |
$320.00 | -0.89% | +4.43% | +27.13% |
Sector relative rotation is currently led by Energy (Composite score: +6.84%) as the top performer relative to SPY. Conversely, the lagging sector is Communications (Composite score: -5.60%).
The S&P 500 index displays a 14-day RSI of 61.5, indicating a neutral-to-overbought momentum profile. The SPY realized volatility (20d) stands at 10.1% with a choppiness index of 51.0.
Style factors highlight market performance preferences. Currently, growth and momentum instruments are being evaluated against defensive value style baskets. Growth indices are showing a YTD return of 8.74%, while Value stands at 20.75%.
| Ticker | Date |
|---|---|
| No upcoming earnings in system | |
| Hotspot & Risk Vector | Primary Affected Channels | Hedging Offsets & Tactics |
|---|---|---|
| Global Trade / US-China Tech Restrictions | Semiconductors, XLK, Chinese ADRs | Defensive Tech, US industrials, onshore alternatives |
| Middle East / Energy Supply Corridors | WTI crude, USO, Brent Brent futures, Energy sector | Long Energy equities (XLE), Gold, Cash reserve buffers |
| Monetary Policy / Yield Divergence | USD (DXY), Carry trades (JPY/USD), Fixed Income | Short duration fixed income, sovereign debt exposure adjustments |
| Transaction Date | Ticker | Insider | Shares | Total Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | FANG | SGF FANG HOLDINGS,LP | 9,079,675.0 | $1863.7M |
| 2026-09-18 | NVDA | STEVENS MARK A | 1,366,000.0 | $300.1M |
| 2026-09-21 | LEN | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | 2,668,508.0 | $206.7M |
| 2026-10-02 | LEN | BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC | 2,403,609.0 | $191.5M |
| 2026-09-11 | RSG | CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. | 580,810.0 | $129.3M |
| 2026-10-05 | NBIS | NAVE OPHIR | 500,000.0 | $117.8M |
| 2026-10-06 | ANET | ULLAL JAYSHREE | 460,374.0 | $97.6M |
| 2026-09-15 | STX | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | 97,889.0 | $75.6M |
| 2026-09-17 | ANET | BECHTOLSHEIM ANDREAS V | 300,000.0 | $59.7M |
| 2026-09-28 | PAYX | GOLISANO B THOMAS | 562,635.0 | $56.2M |
Fiscal and monetary stimulus implementation is monitored closely alongside property market debt structures. Currency stability (CNH) remains an anchor.
The ECB path remains data-dependent amidst slow growth dynamics and sticky core services inflation indicators across major eurozone members.
BOJ monetary normalization efforts and JPY volatility influence global carry trades. Rates differentials continue to adjust slowly.
The Sector Rotation Heatmap (RRG) visually anchors relative sector strength and momentum compared to the S&P 500 index. Leading sectors are positioned in the top-right quadrant.
| Date | Event Release | Time (CT) | Impact | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Oct 14 | 🔴 CPI (Inflation) | 7:30 AM CT | HIGH | Consumer Price Index — major pre-market mover |
| Thu Oct 15 | 🟡 PPI (Producer Prices) | 7:30 AM CT | MODERATE | Producer price index — leads CPI by 1-2 months |
| Thu Oct 15 | 🟡 Retail Sales | 7:30 AM CT | MODERATE | Consumer spending signal — influences growth outlook |
| Date | Release | Time (CT) | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Oct 14 | 🔴 CPI (Inflation) | 7:30 AM CT | HIGH |
| Thu Oct 15 | 🟡 PPI (Producer Prices) | 7:30 AM CT | MODERATE |
| Thu Oct 15 | 🟡 Retail Sales | 7:30 AM CT | MODERATE |
Dates from the official BLS / BEA / Census published schedules. Times are Central.